This week, from October 30 to November 5, significant policy meetings are set to occur involving the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of JapanIn addition, a series of essential economic data releases, including the estimated net borrowing in the United States, the October non-farm payroll data, China's October PMI, and the eurozone's October CPI, are scheduledThese decisions and economic indicators are poised to bring notable changes to the financial markets

On Monday, October 30, the U.STreasury unexpectedly revised down its net borrowing estimate for the fourth quarter of 2023, from an earlier forecast of $852 billion to $776 billion

Additionally, the Treasury reported an expected cash balance of $750 billion by the end of December, aligning with previous estimates.

The Treasury also indicated a net borrowing estimate of $816 billion for the January to March 2024 quarter, maintaining a forecasted cash balance of $750 billion at the end of the first quarter.

As of October 26, the Treasury's cash balance stood at approximately $835 billion, a notable increase from around $502 billion reported on July 31 when preliminary financing estimates were announcedDespite the downward revision, this new forecast still indicates a historic high for borrowing in the fourth quarter.

Previously, both JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank had projected that the net issuance of U.S

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government debt would reach around $1.5 trillion over the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next yearWhile Monday’s announcement suggested the current quarter's borrowing will be less than anticipated, the cumulative figure for two quarters meets expectations.

On the same day, Germany's statistics office reported a preliminary GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter for the third quarter of 2023, along with a harmonized CPI estimate of 3% for October, marking the lowest rate since June 2021.

On Tuesday, October 31, the Bank of Japan is set to hold its monetary policy meetingIt is anticipated that they will make "slight adjustments" to their Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, moderating the hard cap of 1% on interest rates to a reference point while signaling a more flexible approach

However, they will likely keep the policy rate unchanged at -0.100% and maintain the target yield of 0.00% for the 10-year government bonds.

In terms of future outlook, the BoJ has raised its inflation expectations, adjusting the median forecast for core CPI in fiscal 2023 from 2.5% in July to 2.8%, yet simultaneously lowered GDP forecast from 1.2% to 1.0% for fiscal 2024.

The BoJ's stance appears dovish, indicating continued patience in implementing its accommodative monetary policy and affirming readiness to enhance easing measures if necessary.

Nevertheless, the resulting decisions did not meet market expectations for a clear announcement on widening the upper limit to 1.5%.

Before the meeting, the Japanese yen climbed to a two-week high against the U.S

dollar, reaching 148.90 in the Asian trading session on October 31. The yield on 10-year Japanese bonds also peaked at 0.955%, the highest level in ten yearsFollowing the announcement, however, the yen quickly fell below the 150 mark, with U.STreasury yields also retracting subsequently, while the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices saw a swift uptick, gaining over 0.7%.

Despite these developments, the market anticipates that under pressure from rising U.Streasury yields and the continued depreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan will eventually phase out its negative interest rate policy next year.

On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released the October official manufacturing PMI data

China's PMI fell back to 49.5, indicating a contraction after a month, whereas the non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6, also in the expansion territory, but showing a slight deceleration from the previous 51.7.

In October, the composite PMI output index for China registered at 50.7%, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month, suggesting an overall expansion in production and operations among Chinese enterprises, albeit at a slowing pace.

On the same day, S&P Global reported a decline in the preliminary composite PMI for the Eurozone to 46.5, the lowest level in three yearsThe manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 43, while the service sector PMI fell to 47.8, falling short of expectations.

The chief economist at Hamburger Sparkasse commented, "The situation in the Eurozone is getting increasingly worse

We wouldn’t be surprised if the Eurozone economy experiences a mild recession in the second half of this year."

On Wednesday, November 1, traders expect that the U.STreasury will report a quarterly refinancing operation of $114 billionThis reflects a significant increase from August, which had jumped to $103 billion—the first increase in long-term bond issuance in over two and a half years.

The question arises regarding how much the U.Slong-term debt will issue and what its composition will be.

This could potentially lead to fluctuations in U.S

treasury yields, triggering chain reactions across other financial markets.

On Thursday, November 2, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decisionThis decision is crucial for global investorsThe prevailing market expectation is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchangedHowever, uncertainty looms regarding whether Jerome Powell's stance on continuing rate increases and tapering will change during the post-meeting press conference.

On the same day, the Bank of England will release its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report.

On Friday, November 3, the U.S

Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to announce October's seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll numbers and unemployment rateThe UK will also release the service sector PMI for October.

Currently, U.Sstocks are in turmoil, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices plummeting around 10% since their peak in JulyThis precarious situation reflects the market's sensitivity, where any news can lead to significant volatility.

Investors are left to ponder: Will the yield on U.Slong-term debt continue to rise? Is the "U.Sdebt storm" set to persist? Can the Bank of Japan manage to control the depreciation of the yen? Furthermore, how will fluctuations in U.S